Downs’ model posits that competition in a two-party system forces candidates and parties to adopt a range of policies covering the entire left-to-right political distribution to appeal to as many viewpoints as possible, while keeping their net position at the center where the largest number of voters is amassed. This model does, indeed, seem to approximate the behavior we see from Democrats and Republicans in the general election for President, suggesting the population of Americans that vote in the presidential election tends toward a normal distribution.
But can any party be fully satisfied adopting positions barely distinguishable from the competition? Surely, parties would rather be able to maintain their political integrity and still win the election. Numerous barriers prevent this from happening in the general election, but as Jeffrey Toobin argues in The New Yorker, the Gerrymandering of Congressional districts has created a situation that, in fact, encourages parties to cater to the extremes and ignore our beloved median voter.
Gerrymandering leads to many solidly one-party districts. Both Democrats and Republicans have worked over the years to protect their incumbents, rather than force them to compete in more balanced Districts. As a result, Congressional primaries focus on the interests of people on the extremes, not the electorate in the middle. This allows, if not forces, candidates to take more extreme positions politically, and leads to the House being filled with more extreme, partisan members on both the right and the left. (See figure 3 in Downs. Is a revolution imminent?) This polarizing occurs because voters in Congressional primaries are mostly hard-core party members with more extreme positions than the general public. Knowing the election is won in the primary, the candidates move away from the center to appeal to such hard-core “base” voters. And without any (or at least, any signficant) competition from the other party, candidates have no incentive to moderate their views or to compromise because there is no opposing force pulling them towards the political center. If anything, their strongest incentive is to move even farther from the middle, as their competition in the primary is often even more extreme. Thus, in the House races candidates are positioning themselves politically for very different reasons than in more “normal” elections, like the election for President: to appeal to highly partisan primary voters and to fend off same-party opposition instead of to the viewpoints of the constituency as a whole.
Frightening food for thought: What happens when this tendency towards extremes is paired with the power afforded the majority by the House Rules Committee to agenda manipulate?
